Business travel is at a record. So is the risk around it

The Global Business Travel Association's annual forecast, released at its Chicago convention on August 3, projects global business travel spending at a record $1.71 trillion in 2026 — up 7.2% — across 1.84 billion trips. GBTA's chief executive described companies as more selective and productivity-focused rather than pulling back. Earlier GBTA polling found 76% of travel buyers reporting geopolitical conflict affecting their programs, with employee safety among their top concerns.

The risk side of the ledger filled in all summer. The State Department renewed Niger's Level 4 do-not-travel advisory on July 9 and issued one for the Democratic Republic of the Congo on July 15 amid an Ebola outbreak — with DHS barring travelers who had been in the DRC within 21 days from boarding U.S.-bound flights — leaving roughly two dozen countries at Level 4. Air-passenger analysts warned of an August strike wave across European carriers. And the Middle East corridor remained disrupted by conflict-driven suspensions and airspace closures.

More trips, more volatile conditions, flat security headcount: that is the equation most programs are living. Manual trip-by-trip risk assessment already failed at last year's volumes. At 1.84 billion trips, the only honest answers are to cover fewer travelers — a liability decision no counsel will sign — or to change the model so automation carries the routine load.

That is the design premise of PATHWAY — Travel Security: risk scoring across security, political, environmental, and health factors decides each trip's workflow — briefing only, pre-travel briefing, or pre-brief plus mandatory debrief — so analysts spend their hours on the travelers and moments that need judgment. Monitoring continues through the trip as conditions change. PATHWAY supports ISO 31030 compliance programs; notably, ISO has this year moved the travel-risk standard toward revision as courts and insurers increasingly reference it.

Travel is back to record levels because it earns its cost. Duty of care now has to operate at record levels too — and the programs that scale it with automation rather than headcount are the ones that will keep pace.